Search results for "Rain probability"
showing 2 items of 2 documents
Applying a probabilistic model of rainfall and snow days occurrence to daily series recorded in NW Italy.
2014
Daily precipitation records exist spanning several decades. A valuable amount of climatic information exists in the time-series of interarrival times (IT), defined as the succession of times (number of days) elapsed from a rainy (or snowy) day to the one immediately preceding it.In a previous work, Agnese et al. (2014) have been successfully tested some probabilistic modelling of rain occurrence on Sicily rainfall data; particularly, the better fitting of IT’s observed frequencies was obtained by 3-parameter Lerch-series distribution. In this work thisdistribution is tested on 70 years of 20 precipitation time-series taken in the North-West Italy, both in the plain and in the mountains, up …
Modelling the occurrence of rainy days under a typical Mediterranean climate
2014
The statistical inference of the alternation of wet and dry periods in daily rainfall records can be achieved through the modelling of inter-arrival time-series, IT, defined as the succession of times elapsed from a rainy day and the one immediately preceding it. In this paper, under the hypothesis that ITs are independent and identically distributed random variables, a modelling framework based on a generalisation of the commonly adopted Bernoulli process is introduced. Within this framework, the capability of three discrete distributions, belonging to the Hurwitz–Lerch-Zeta family, to reproduce the main statistical features of IT time-series was tested. These distributions namely Lerch-se…